Instant Messaging History Inventors

It's "Future Shock" is already upon us?

In 1970, Alvin Toffler's book, "Future Shock" predicted a world in which the technology evolved so quickly from the company was stunned, unable to adjust, succumbing to the "crushing pressure and disorientation. A decade later, John Naisbitt took one look less catastrophic, focused on the next decade, "Megatrends – Ten New Directions Transforming our lives "and updated it in 1990 with" Megatrends 2000 ".

Toffler proved to be right and wrong. "Future Shock" no attack millions of people, but especially the newly liberated countries of the former Soviet bloc, especially in Russia itself. Hundreds of immigrants who came of those nations to the U.S. in the 1990 reports returned complaining of "too much choice."

Even a British author and high-tech world consultant who spent the 1990s living and working in Southern California and Washington, DC, will soon publish a book on his American experience, which includes a chapter on how even the Western Europeans can be overwhelmed by American-style consumerism. The working title? "Horn of Plenty choice of consumers to confusion: Forty-five types of shredded wheat? "

What Toffler did not anticipate was the ease with which Americans, Canadian and in the domain of their own societies, not the rest of the world "developed" only accept, but often require a more rapid implementation of new technologies. Generations raised on Star Trek and Star Wars did not merely anticipate desktops, instant access to global information, global labor "communicators" and the robots they built.

Some of the predictions Naisbitt, such as an increase in home based "network" were surprisingly on target, especially considering we have never used Internet words, e-mail, Global Positioning System (GPS) – none of which did not exist – not terrorism, arguably four of the most important factors in the late 20s and early society of the 21st century.

Perhaps the most surprising – and controversial – look at our future based on technology came in 2001, when Ray Kurzweil, one of the world's most honored inventors, authors and futurists, published its "Law of Accelerating returns.

"An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to common sense "linear view" intuitive. So we will not experience 100 years of progress in the 21st Century – will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today's rate). The "returns" as chip speed and cost-effectiveness, also increase exponentially. There is even exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth. Within a few decades, machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading to the singularity – technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history. The implications include the merger of biological intelligence and non-biological, immortal software-based humans and ultra-high level of intelligence that expand into the universe at the speed of light. "

And this is just the first paragraph! (The whole piece is available in http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0134.html?printable=1).

"Kurzweil law helps Toffler explain what feared and tried to analyze Naisbitt. As if Kurzweil is qualified to make such bold statements, consider his remarkable biography in http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Kurzweil. 2005, or simply Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates, describing him as "the best at predicting the future of artificial intelligence.

Considering Kurzweil's Law, "Naisbitt Megatrends" and "Toffler, Future Shock" are already being eclipsed by the speed of technological advancement. Any new version of either book would be published by electronic means to avoid being funny off date before coming to a bookstore.

Consider some examples of where we are headed in the next 20 years or less:

Military doctors are already searching the ground in a decade, not a medical tricorder early version of Star Trek – no waiting, waiting, but planning.

The future of the Army U.S. Warrior infantry combat set around 2020, which has been called everything from a futuristic medieval knight suit of armor of a Star Wars Imperial Trooper. But the future of Guerrero is an evolutionary process, with the first elements now on its way to U.S. troops in southwest Asia, for which small robots that perform tasks ditions such as detecting explosives at checkpoints is already considered an honor and an invaluable companions.

The hydrogen fuel cells the size of soda cans have been feeding area television cameras over the past two years, people all over the world can open their own "communicators" and not just talk to anyone anywhere, but take and send photos and movies, music, download information, send and receive text messages, obtain accurate GPS locations – including Mr. Spock is likely to raise an eyebrow and mutter, "fascinating."

Kurzweil Singularity provides a time – perhaps within the next two decades – it will be possible to download a human memory and personality into a computer. Add an advanced and highly realistic avatar based on the actual appearance of that person (any age) and a speech synthesizer be equally accurate and can have a real time, the initial conversation with a relative dead or teacher. Imagine Einstein or Mozart or Da Vinci preserved forever.

The religious implications, of course, are obvious, such as legal and social: With AI grandfather even your own house? Will the flesh grandmother may remarry? Is deleted from a disk of murder AI personality? And for writers and editors, if copyright continue for 70 years after the author's death, is an author of AI dead – or ever?

Nanotechnology – microscopic machines – and microbiology is expected to combine to allow the repair of almost anything that is wrong in any part of the body. There is no chemotherapy, no contact lenses, no heart surgery open, only one injection of thousands of small robots programmed surgeons to address the problem.

Experiments have already been made to allow two people share the sense perceptions. In others, robotic limbs have been activated by the subjects to think about moving their own arms or legs. Such bioelectronics is expected that advances for quadriplegics to move away from their wheelchairs, possibly in a generation.

Consider:

– In 1906 we had just witnessed the first flight of a heavier-than-air manned aircraft, a flight that lasted less than the wingspan of a Boeing 747. Six decades Later, we were walking on the moon.

– In 1906, few people had access to a very cumbersome, expensive and unreliable telephone system and the radio remains an experiment today, you can watch television on your mobile.

– In 1906 the average life expectancy in the U.S. was 46.9 for men, 50.8 for women, today, is 74.5 for men and 79.9 for women, according to the tables of U.S. government. But many say for those of us futurists now live, the trick is simply to live long enough. . to live forever – who believe that the merger of biology and technology will enable, in one form or another within a generation.

"Future Shock" and "Megatrends" were products of the late 20th century, when the Law of Return Kurzweil Speeding was beginning to reach the Tipping Point – "The dramatic moment when something unique becomes common. In contrast, the 21st century will require entirely new legal, sociological, philosophical, religious, political, moral and personal concepts.

It may be – 250 years earlier than claimed to show the 1990s TV show "Babylon 5" – truly the "dawn of the Third Age of Mankind."

About the Author

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by Ian Williamson please visit http://www.real-articles.com/Category/Technology/8

Authors@Google: Peter Seibel

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